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COVID-19 In King County WA – May 1 Report

by | May 1, 2020

Friends,

Before I get to the daily report on COVID-19 in King County, I would like to give you a quick update on Pacific Science Center. As a result of COVID-19, PacSci has been closed since March 11. We expect to be closed for several more weeks if not more. But curiosity never closes. My colleagues and I are determined to continue serving the community. This daily report on COVID-19 in King County is one of many ways we seek to be helpful. These two videos provide more information along with an opportunity to support our work.

State of PacSci with Will Daugherty
Senator Reuven Carlyle celebrates PacSci

I am grateful for everything that each of you does to serve our community.

-Will

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, April 30, there were 6,407 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 99 more than the previous day. There have been 449 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Today’s report from Public Health includes information about COVID-19’s disproportionate impact on communities of color:

Public Health – Seattle & King County is releasing updated data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths by race and ethnicity. The data shows that rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases for Hispanics, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders is four times that of Whites. The rate of confirmed cases for Blacks is double that of Whites. Rates are higher for American Indian/Alaskan Native populations (but not statistically significantly higher because of low numbers) and the rate for Asians is similar to Whites.

The new analysis also provides information on COVID-19 rates of hospitalizations and deaths by race and ethnicity, where the data also show disparities.

One of the more concerning trends Public Health officials see from the data is that the percent of cases by race and ethnicity appears to be shifting as the outbreak evolves. Over the past month, the proportion of COVID-19 cases among Whites has decreased, while the proportion of cases among communities of color has increased.

Observations

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 99 new cases reported today, 81 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 18 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. The 7-day average peaked at 188 on April 1 and has been in decline since then, but the 7-day average has leveled off during the last several days. The trailing 7-day average is 91 new cases per day. Four days ago it was 86 new cases per day.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 6,407 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.5%, less than the 1.8% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with today’s total of 6,407 cases, a 1.5% compound daily growth rate (1.510% to be precise) yields 97 new cases in a day, 709 new cases in a week, and 3,340 new cases in four weeks. With this in mind, I was not surprised that Governor Inslee today extended Phase 1 of the “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order through May 31.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

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