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COVID-19 In King County WA – May 2 Report

by | May 2, 2020

Friends,

Before I get to the daily report on COVID-19 in King County, I would like to give you a quick update on Pacific Science Center. As a result of COVID-19, PacSci has been closed since March 11. We expect to be closed for several more weeks if not more. But curiosity never closes. My colleagues and I are determined to continue serving the community. This daily report on COVID-19 in King County is one of many ways we seek to be helpful. These two videos provide more information along with an opportunity to support our work.

State of PacSci with Will Daugherty
Senator Reuven Carlyle celebrates PacSci

I am grateful for everything that each of you does to serve our community.

-Will

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 1, there were 6,507 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 100 more than the previous day. There have been 456 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 100 new cases reported today, 75 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 25 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. The 7-day average peaked at 188 on April 1 and has been in decline since then, but the 7-day average has leveled off during the last several days. The trailing 7-day average is 93 new cases per day. It has been in the 91-96 range for the last 8 days. We can see this clearly in the red line. This is not the kind of flattening we are hoping for.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 6,507 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.5%, only slightly less than the 1.7% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 6,507 cases, a 1.5% compound daily growth rate (1.517% to be precise) yields 99 new cases in a day, 723 new cases in a week, and 3,413 new cases in four weeks.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

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