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COVID-19 In King County WA – May 3 Report

by | May 3, 2020

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 2, there were 6,464 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 43 fewer than the previous day. Public Health explains the reduction:

There are many serology (antibody) tests currently available that have not been evaluated and validated by the FDA and the accuracy of results bases on antibody tests in general is not known. Therefore, at this time WA DOH & PHSKC will only report results based on PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), which accurately identifies people with current COVID-19. As of 5/3, there are 154 King County residents reported with a positive COVID-19 result that was based only on antibody testing; these results have been removed from our case counts.

There have been 458 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.1% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

I have adjusted all data to match what Public Health is now reporting. While Public Health removed 154 cases from the totals due as explained above, the total number of cases only dropped by 43 from yesterday. This means that there were 111 new cases reported in the day. Of those 111, 50 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 61 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day.

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). With Public Health’s updated daily data, we no longer see the red line leveling off in the 90s. The 7-day average peaked at 189 on April 1 and has been in decline since then. The trailing 7-day average is now 75 new cases per day. This is the lowest it has been since March 18.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 6,464 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.2%, slightly less than the 1.6% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 6,464 cases, a 1.2% compound daily growth rate (1.215% to be precise) yields 79 new cases in a day, 570 new cases in a week, and 2,601 new cases in four weeks.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

* * *

As you plan for Give Big this week, I hope that you will consider Pacific Science Center. As this region’s science center, our work is more important than ever. Science and an informed public are humanity’s best hopes in addressing COVID-19, climate change, and other challenges.

COVID-19 forced PacSci to close on March 12, but curiosity never closes. We are determined to continue serving the community. This daily report on COVID-19 in King County is one of ways we seek to serve.

I hope you will take a moment to view these two videos.

State of PacSci with Will Daugherty
Senator Reuven Carlyle celebrates PacSci

Thank you for being curious.

-Will

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