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COVID-19 in King County WA – May 6

by | May 6, 2020

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 5, there were 6,770 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 117 more than the previous day. There have been 474 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 117 new cases reported today, 72 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 45 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. Those restatements go back into March. The 7-day average peaked at 191 on April 1 and has declined to 77, just below where it was on March 19 (78).

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 6,770 total cases as of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.2%, slightly less than the 1.5% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 6,770 cases, a 1.2% compound daily growth rate (1.199% to be precise) yields 81 new cases in a day, 589 new cases in a week, and 2,683 new cases in four weeks. In order for the number of new cases per day to fall below 10, the compound daily growth rate will have to fall below 0.15%. I don’t see this happening in the month of May considering how elongated the decline in the 7-day average has become (red line in the first graph).

Back today by popular demand, the third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23. Three of the nine most recent data points show a downward breakout from the recent clustering. But we should keep in mind that these data points could be revised upward as Public Health receives delayed reports.

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