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COVID-19 in King County WA – May 14 Report

by | May 14, 2020

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 13, there were 7,307 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 86 more than the previous day. There have been 514 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 86 cases reported today, 67 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 19 were confirmed in previous days. The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 191 on April 1. The average for the last 7 days is now 60 new cases per day. I’m curious to see if this downtrend continues with relaxation of social distancing guidelines and behavior.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 7,307 total cases as of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 0.9%, slightly less than the 1.2% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 7,307 cases, a 0.9% compound daily growth rate (0.853% to be precise) yields 62 new cases in a day, 448 new cases in a week, and 1,963 new cases in four weeks. With 7,307 cases, the compound daily growth rate will must be less than 0.137% in order for the number of new cases per day to be less than 10. It seems unlikely that we reach that point before the end of May, but the first half June seems possible.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

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