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COVID-19 in King County WA – May 15 Report

by | May 15, 2020

I will not be sending reports this weekend. My next report will be on Monday, May 18.

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 14, there were 7,360 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 53 more than the previous day. There have been 516 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 53 cases reported today, 52 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 1 was confirmed in a previous day. The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 191 on April 1. The average for the last 7 days is now 58 new cases per day, down 26% from 79 one week ago. The 26% decline is the largest 1-week decline so far. If the 7-day average continues to decline 26% each week, it will be down to 17 four weeks from now.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 7,360 total cases as of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 0.8%, slightly less than the 1.2% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 7,360 cases, a 0.8% compound daily growth rate (0.814% to be precise) yields 60 new cases in a day, 430 new cases in a week, and 1,875 new cases in four weeks. With 7,360 cases, the compound daily growth rate will must be less than 0.136% in order for the number of new cases per day to be less than 10.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

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