PacSci Blog

Recent Stories

Dangerous Products

In this PacSci Podcast, we look at products throughout history that killed, injured and poisoned, and the marketing campaigns that went along with them.

COVID-19 in King County WA – May 19 Report

by | May 19, 2020

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 18, there were 7,582 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 53 more than the previous day. There have been 529 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 53 cases reported today, 44 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 9 were confirmed in previous days. The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 191 on April 1. The average for the last 7 days is now 54 new cases per day, the lowest since March 13.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 7,582 total cases as of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 0.7%, slightly less than the 1.0% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with 7,582 cases, a 0.7% compound daily growth rate (0.735% to be precise) yields 56 new cases in a day, 399 new cases in a week, and 1,726 new cases in four weeks. With 7,582 cases, the compound daily growth rate must be less than 0.132% in order for the number of new cases per day to be less than 10.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

Share

Follow

Girl with flowers in her hair using a microscope

X