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COVID-19 in King County WA – May 22 Report

by | May 22, 2020

My next report will be on Tuesday, May 26. If you are curious about results before then, you can always check Public Health’s data dashboard. I hope that you can enjoy the long weekend.

Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard. Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, May 21, there were 7,697 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 52 more than the previous day. There have been 537 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.


The first graph above shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 52 new cases reported today, 45 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 7 were confirmed in previous days. The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 193 on April 1. The average for the last 7 days is now 44 new cases per day, the lowest level since March 12. The 7-day average has declined 44% in the last two weeks and 29% in the last week. If the rate of decline during the last two weeks continues, the 7-day average will be 10 on around June 26. That’s not a prediction—just math—but I do expect the 7-day average to drop into the high 30s by Tuesday.

The second graph below shows the total case count. With 7,697 total cases as of 11:59 p.m. yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 0.59%, 27 basis points less than the 0.86% rate during the prior 7 days. With 7,697 cases, the daily growth rate must be less than 0.13% in order for the number of new cases per day to be less than 10.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23. We can see the significant downward trajectory in the last two weeks.